Longhorn and Yukon timelines

Now that Yukon has been pushed back to the first half of 2005, I cannot believe the recent reports indicating Longhorn is on track for a first half of 2006 release. It just doesn't add up. Why? Because both products are tied to a Visual Studio release.

This means that they only have 1 year to develop VS.NET Orcas. No way hose.
VS.NET Orcas could only be released in Q2 2006 if:

• The delay is only caused by Yukon and VS.NET 2005 is already completed. The recent tech preview indicated otherwise.
• There are two seperate teams for 2005 and orcas. Well, I do believe that they already are developing parts of Orcas, but I think Orcas isn't getting to full speed development before 2005 is finished.
• Orcas has only a couple of additional features, like 2003 had. This is however very unlikely, because of all the new technologies they have to integrate to unleash the power of longhorn to developers.
• Untie the release of longhorn and visual studio, but this isn't an option at all. A new OS doesn't make sense without developer tools.

DotNetJunkies - Longhorn and Yukon timelines